2026 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft 1.0
02/10/2026
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As the 2026 NFL Draft approaches, we are gearing up with our first rookie fantasy football mock draft. In this draft, we
For our 76-part “Does It Matter?” series, we explored whether a Wide Receiver’s Agility Score — sourced from PlayerProfiler — can serve as a reliable predictor for future success in the NFL. Within this article, we uncover the correlation, importance, and ideal benchmarks within this metric. Here are all of our findings:
Our research looked at the top 50 fantasy football finishers since 2003, utilizing PPR fantasy scores as the leaderboard scoring style. The “bottom 10”, which you will see throughout this article, refers to those finishing 41st-50th each season. All Agility Score data was collected from PlayerProfiler.
Why only the top 50? We selected the top 50 to maintain a “happy medium.” Including more would approach fringe roster players who won’t score in the top 10, which could only skew the data. On the other hand, we still wanted to compare the worst to the best, meaning we needed a range of players distinct from the top 10. Therefore, we included those finishing in 41st-50th places for comparison with the top 10 to achieve that “happy medium.”
To begin, averages were calculated for fantasy finishers placed in the top 5, top 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th places since 2007. The goal was to visualize patterns and correlations in terms of agility scores and fantasy success. From our constructed averages chart, it was difficult to discern any obvious trends. In 9/16 seasons (56.2%) since 2007, top 5 finishers had superior agility scores compared to those finishing in the 31st-50th bracket, essentially a coin flip.
Further, we segmented the top and bottom 10 finishers since 2003 into 0.1 agility score intervals. This granular breakdown revealed a clearer picture: higher agility scores generally correlated with higher fantasy scores. Comparing the weight and distribution across both of these charts is how we came to this conclusion. While not definitive, this possible correlation warranted a deeper look. You can see those two charts next, with the top 10 coming first:
Our next objective was to pinpoint an applicable threshold that historically indicates top-level consistency while minimizing the appearance of unique players, therefore highlighting consistent top-performers. To achieve this, we looked to our differences chart. This chart compares each agility score with the next 0.3 increment while subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10 within each of those groups. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. This analysis revealed that agility scores of 9.9 and above might represent a promising range for top performers, although we will look to verify that next.
To fine-tune our findings, we made range adjustments within our spreadsheet to test various ranges around the 9.9 and above threshold. Ultimately, we discovered that setting the threshold to 10.1 and above led to a 16.2% increase in top 10 appearances compared to the bottom 10. This refined range is now what is recommended for those tracking their favorite athletes and will be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints, which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view as seen here:
Due to these findings, agility score could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profiles. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
Don’t just draft for this year. Gain the knowledge needed to position yourself to secure your future with SPS rookie data.
To find how much it matters historically, we utilized standard statistical methods, which yielded the following results:
This value indicates no strong correlation between a WR’s agility score and future fantasy production when applying standard statistical methods. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when we study world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
To further our study, we compared data across the last two decades to identify trends in how our identified agility score range impacted the top 10, 11th-40th, and bottom 10 finishers across those two decades. The decadal differences chart indicated that this optimal range is a slightly declining trend in the most recent decade from the already little significance it held.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 46 | 145 | 34 |
| All 10.1 and above | 34 | 91 | 19 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 73.9% | 62.8% | 55.9% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 92 | 257 | 81 |
| All 10.1 and above | 58 | 146 | 39 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 63.0% | 56.8% | 48.1% |
Through another rigorous statistical analysis, we uncovered that Wide Receivers’ Agility Scores hold little significance and predictability in predicting fantasy football success.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 77 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Wide Receiver PlayerProfiler Burst Scores: Does it matter? If so, what’s the burst score threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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