For our 78-part “Does It Matter?” series we looked into Wide Receiver Speed Scores from PlayerProfiler, a metric designed to quantify a Wide Receivers straight-line speed relative to their weight. The questions at hand are simple: can this one number help us predict future success? Further, if it does matter what is a good Speed Score and how much does it matter?
To get to the bottom of this, we performed a thorough data analysis beginning with a specific sample size of the top 50 (based on PPR standings) each season since 2003. All Speed Score data was collected from PlayerProfiler.
Why only the top 50? This particular range was chosen to find a “happy medium” for our analysis. By limiting our scope to the top 50, we excluded players who were on the fringes of rosters and would naturally skew the data with low fantasy scores. At the same time, we wanted to compare the best to the worst, so we isolated the “bottom 10” (players finishing 41st-50th) to create a meaningful comparison group against the top 10 finishers.
Our first step was to create an averages chart, separating the top 50 fantasy finishers into four groups: top 5, top 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th. After examining the data since 2003, a slight trend emerged. While not a perfect correlation, players with higher Speed Scores generally achieved higher fantasy finishes. In 13 out of 21 seasons (61.9%), the top 10 finishers had a higher average Speed Score than the 31st-50th place finishers.
Our next step was to chart the distribution of Speed Scores for the top and bottom 10 finishers since 2003. We segmented this data into 5.0 rounded Speed Score buckets to see a visualization of where the data “weighs”. A slight trend appeared here also that higher Speed Scores were more frequently found amongst the best fantasy producers. You can see those two charts next, with the top 10 coming first:
Our main goal was to find an applicable threshold within speed scores that has historically signaled top-level consistent performances and minimizes the appearance of one-hit wonders. To achieve this, we developed a “differences chart” which compares each speed score, plus the next 5.0 speed score, while subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10 within that group. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This initial analysis suggested that a speed score of 95 and above could be a possible top-performing range, providing a solid starting point for determining an optimal range.
With the initial data pointing to a potential range, we began the process of fine-tuning it. We made quick range adjustments in our spreadsheet to ensure we identified the most productive range. After testing various numbers close to the range our differences chart showed, we discovered that altering this range to 97 and above produces a 16.4% higher top 10 appearance rate compared to the bottom 10. This finding was significant, as it validated our methodology and provided us with a clear, optimal threshold. Therefore, the 97+ speed score range will be the optimal range that you should hope for in your favorite Wide Receivers and will be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints, which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view as seen here:
Due to these findings, speed score could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL – some of which are proprietary to BrainyBallers – providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
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To validate our findings, we applied standard statistical methods. Our analysis produced a Pearson value of 0.138. This shows a strong correlation between a WR’s speed score and future fantasy production. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation of -0.1 or lower when we study world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, QB draft capital prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
Next, we compared decades to spot recent trends and to see how significant our WR Speed score optimal range is for the top 10, 11-40th place finishers, and bottom 10. The results are compelling. As you can see from the decadal differences chart, this optimal range is an increasing trend in the most recent decade by a 13.5% frequency. This suggests that this specific speed score threshold is becoming an even more reliable indicator of elite performance.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 85 | 201 | 53 |
| All 97 and above | 59 | 113 | 32 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 69.4% | 56.2% | 60.4% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 100 | 294 | 99 |
| All 97 and above | 74 | 192 | 51 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 74.0% | 65.3% | 51.5 |
So, does a Wide Receiver’s Speed Score matter? The numbers suggest that yes, it does, though perhaps not in the way you might expect. It isn’t a silver bullet metric that can predict a top-10 finish on its own. However, when trying to decide between two players with similar profiles, or when evaluating one specific player, a standout Speed Score can be a valuable piece of evidence. The data shows that a higher Speed Score is more often found in the top tier of fantasy finishers, and an ideal benchmark range exists of 97 and above that appears to be a common trait among the league’s most successful wide receivers. This metric, while not the whole story, can be a useful tool to help you come to a conclusion on players.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 79 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End PFF Receiving Grades: Do They Matter? If so, what’s the RECV Grade threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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