In Dynasty Fantasy Football, Finding late-round value risers can be significant to ensuring long term success. Leveraging the Star-Predictor Score (SPS) Value Flip formula helps spot these potential gems by identifying players with a probable value increase. Numerous viewers have requested insights on mid to late-round players, as the SPS primarily focuses on rounds 2 to 3, depending on the position. While there is a valid reason for that practice, we noticed when there’s a difference between SPS and draft rankings – when a player’s SPS ranking is higher than their draft ranking – in later rounds, these players typically increase in value. This observation formed the basis of this rookie value flip guide.
Qualifying Players and Their KTC Value Changes
Players on the SPS Value Flip list have shown a significant positive change in their KeepTradeCut (KTC) value. If a player isn’t on the list, they simply didn’t meet the necessary criteria. Therefore, we aren’t saying others outside this list will not increase in value, just that they didn’t qualify for this list. Further, this is for flipping assets for a profit, not necessarily for finding starters. Most late-round sleepers never ascend to a high enough production level to qualify as starters.
What Is It?
The SPS Value Flip formula is an offshoot of the broader Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model, which was built as a prospect scouting tool aimed at maximizing investment potential while minimizing risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. The Value Flip formula identifies and targets players beyond the top prospects, recognizing their potential hidden value. Some underlying reason justifies drafting these players higher. The public will eventually recognize this discrepancy, leading to an upward trajectory in the player’s value.
Track Record of Success
The SPS Value Flip formula has recently identified players like Bucky Irving and DeVon Achane, who have seen significant value increases. What you will see in the table is all the players who qualify for the formula since 2017. You’ll see players’ draft day KeepTradeCut values alongside their career peaks in KTC value. Green highlights players flipped for profit, while red marks those who decreased in value. Any grey player is either due to being drafted before KTC player values originated (2020), or due to being a rookie this season. For transparency, we assumed Donnel Pumphrey’s value should be in the red, even though he was drafted before 2020. Below this paragraph, you will see the average player increase. This is possibly the most insightful aspect, as it can help guide you when to sell these players. Without further ado, here are the averaged and the table, which will be updated annually with new rookies and refreshed values:
Current average KTC value profit/loss from all known values: +2,567
SPS Value Flips
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Name | College | Draft | Draft Value (KTC) | Peak Value (KTC) | Value Gain (KTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | zachr08 | 05-01-25 05:43 PM | zachr08 | 05-01-25 05:43 PM | RJ Harvey | UCF | 2025 | 2223 | N/A | 0 |
| 2 | zachr08 | 05-01-25 05:43 PM | zachr08 | 05-01-25 05:43 PM | DJ Giddens | Kansas State | 2025 | 2047 | N/A | 0 |
| 3 | zachr08 | 05-01-25 05:43 PM | zachr08 | 05-01-25 05:43 PM | Brashard Smith | SMU | 2025 | 720 | N/A | 0 |
| 5 | Braelon Allen | Wisconsin | 2024 | 2625 | 4011 | 1,386 | ||||
| 6 | Bucky Irving | Oregon | 2024 | 1780 | 5590 | 3,810 | ||||
| 7 | De'Von Achane | Texas A&M | 2023 | 2881 | 7571 | 4,690 | ||||
| 8 | Rachaad White | Arizona State | 2022 | 2340 | 4689 | 2,349 | ||||
| 9 | Pierre Strong | South Dakota State | 2022 | 1076 | 1707 | 631 | ||||
| 10 | Brian Robinson Jr. | Alabama | 2022 | 1825 | 4652 | 2,827 | ||||
| 11 | Chuba Hubbard | Oklahoma State | 2021 | 3251 | 4423 | 1,172 | ||||
| 12 | Kenneth Gainwell | Memphis | 2021 | 3640 | 3428 | -212 | ||||
| 13 | AJ Dillon | Boston College | 2020 | 1278 | 5313 | 4,035 | ||||
| 14 | J.K. Dobbins | Ohio State | 2020 | 6244 | 7424 | 1,180 | ||||
| 15 | zachr08 | 05-01-25 05:55 PM | zachr08 | 05-01-25 05:55 PM | Antonio Gibson | Memphis | 2020 | 489 | 7116 | 6,627 |
| 16 | Justice Hill | Oklahoma State | 2019 | Unknown | Unknown | 0 | ||||
| 17 | David Montgomery | Iowa State | 2019 | Unknown | Unknown | 0 | ||||
| 18 | Devin Singletary | Florida Atlantic | 2019 | Unknown | Unknown | 0 | ||||
| 19 | Derrius Guice | LSU | 2018 | Unknown | Unknown | 0 | ||||
| 20 | Nick Chubb | Georgia | 2018 | Unknown | Unknown | 0 | ||||
| 21 | zachr08 | 05-01-25 05:41 PM | zachr08 | 05-01-25 05:41 PM | Donnel Pumphrey | San Diego State | 2017 | Unknown | Unknown | -1 |
| 22 | zachr08 | 05-01-25 05:35 PM | zachr08 | 05-01-25 05:35 PM | Joe Mixon | Oklahoma | 2017 | Unknown | Unknown | 0 |
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Conclusion
The SPS Value Flip formula is transforming our draft strategy. By understanding and applying this insight, managers can more reliably and consistently identify late-round value risers. This approach results in greater long-term success in keeper leagues by consistently enhancing team asset value.
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