Defensive End Weight: Does It Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis

For part 41 of our “Does It Matter?” series, we looked into the impact of a Defensive Ends weight on their performance. Using our data, we applied standard statistical analysis methods, found an optimal weight range, and applied that optimal range to the 2024 DE NFL draft class. Here are all of our findings:

Methodology

To structure our analysis, we collected the top 50 fantasy football finishers since 2003, excluding anyone who is listed as a Defensive Tackle. The term “bottom 10”, which you will see throughout this study, refers to those occupying the 41st-50th positions each season. All this data was sourced from the NFL Draft combine results.

Why the top 50? We wanted to maintain a “happy medium” by including enough players to avoid fringe roster players who would only skew results, yet still differentiate between the elite and those less successful.

Analyzing DE Weight Averages

To begin, we calculated averages across different finisher brackets: top 5, top 10, 11-30th, and 31-50th finishers since 2003. From this, no clear trend emerged indicating higher or lower weights for top finishers. In 12 out of 21 seasons (57.1%), the top 5 had higher weights compared to those who finished 31st-50th. This raised questions about the influence of weight on DE performance, suggesting it might not be a valuable predictor.

Segmented Top & Bottom 10 Finishers Since 2003

To dive deeper into the weight data, we segmented the top 10 finishers since 2003 into 1-pound increments. The top 10 chart appeared skewed towards higher weights, implying a possible advantage for heavier DEs.

DE Weight Differences Chart Analysis

Our primary goal was to establish a weight range for defensive ends where higher performances occur. To do this, we created our differences chart which compared weight increments plus the next five pounds, subtracting the bottom 10 results from the top 10. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). This would indicate the top level consistency we are hoping for. From this analysis, 247-275lbs appears to be the optimal weight range. We will test this and other ranges to verify this as the top producing range, or find a better one.

Verifying the Optimal DE Weight Range

By altering the weight range to 251-272lbs, this yielded a 14.0% higher appearance rate in the top 10 compared to the bottom 10. This weight range will be the optimal range for DE Weights for our SPS model and will be the subject of this research going forward.

Establishing the Critical DE Weight Threshold

Next, we waned to break the top 50 fantasy finishers into tiers of the top 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 to find our critical value for DE weights. This threshold will serve as a bare minimum benchmark for our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model. These findings are below:

• Top 10 Min: 231 lbs
• Top 20 Min: 231 lbs
• Top 30 Min: 231 lbs
• Top 40 Min: 231 lbs
• Top 50 Min: 231 lbs

Due to these findings, 231lbs became our critical threshold for Defensive Ends in our StarPredictor Score (SPS) model. Essentially, Defensive Ends must measure in at least at 231lbs in order to not be considered a future bust by our model. We are hoping to have this model fully functional by the beginning of the 2027 NFL season. You can subscribe to our mailing list to get updates on this model when it begins coming out here:

DE Weight Pearson Value

For standard statistical methods, we calculated a Pearson Value of 0.0183. This indicates no significant correlation between a DE’s weight and fantasy performance. We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 when we study world-class athletes as we are. For reference to something that everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting, and to show the accompanying Pearson value, RB draft capital prevailed a -0.234 Pearson value.

Decadal Differences

We next wanted to assess the significance of the identified DE weight range for top 10, 11-40th, and bottom 10 finishers by applying our optimal range across the last 2 decades. From this, you can see that this is actually a dying trend by using the B10 to T10 difference.

Application to Rookie DE NFL Class

Finally, we looked at how the 2024 Rookie DE NFL class fits within our identified optimal weight range. We broke it down into rookies who fit into our optimal range, and those who did not below:

2024 NFL Draft Rookies in our optimal range (251 to 272lbs):

2024 NFL Draft Rookies out of our optimal range:

Conclusion

From this study, we narrowed down the optimal range for DE Weights to 251-272lbs. Standard statistical methods show no correlation, so nobody should be using weights to evaluate Defensive Ends solely. Further, we found this to be a dying trend across the last two decades, further decreasing the predictable power of weights for Defensive Ends.

Key Stats Every NFL Scout Should Know, Ranked

Everybody knows stats are cool, but which stats are the coolest and mean the most? Additionally, what are the target benchmarks athletes should aim to achieve in each statistic? That's what this chart answers. Type in your desired position in the "Position" field to see the key metrics players need for a higher chance of NFL success. Then, filter the success boost or Pearson value from highest to lowest to see which stats mean the most. Pearson values of 0.1 and higher OR -0.1 or lower indicates correlation. Unlock all metrics by signing up with the links provided. For only $1.99/month!

More Data Next Week!

Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 42 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Defensive End 40 Yard Dashes: Does it matter? If so, what’s the 40-time threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!

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