In part 8 of our “Saturday Script” series, we ventured into our first Running Back data to figure out if weight matters for NFL running backs and to uncover any correlations. Excitingly, we discovered a hard and soft range that could influence your favorite player’s success. Further, we look forward to the 2024 rookie RB class and matched all of those rookies up with our hard and soft ranges.
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Methodology: Consistency and Precision
To ensure consistency, we relied exclusively on NFL Draft Combine numbers and analyzed the top 50 fantasy football finishers since 2003. All of our data is based on PPR scoring system. Our approach included:
- Averages Chart: We averaged stats for the top 1, 5, 10, 11-30, and 31-50 finishers since 2003.
- Segmented Charting: We segmented the top 10 and bottom 10 finishers by weight, comparing each pound. The bottom 10 is defined as fantasy football finishers 41-50 each season.
RB Averages Chart
Our averages chart for top 1, 5, 10, 11-30, and 31-50 finishers shows no definitive trend other than a recent increase in weight among the top 5 and 10 performers.
Segmented Chart Insights: Pounds Matter
When we segmented each top 10 finisher by weight, we discovered significant increases in production at certain specific weights. Notably, 213 and 214 pounds showed the most significant increase in performance, hinting at a potential hard range. Additionally, around 196 pounds a smaller yet notable increase suggested a possible soft zone.
Comparing Top and Bottom Performers
To add depth to our findings, we constructed a differences chart. This compares each weight segment and the next 5 pounds among the top finishers while subtracting the corresponding data from the bottom 10. Essentially, the Top 10 finishers chart minus the Bottom 10 Finishers chart (seen above) for each 5 pounds beginning at the indicated weight. In this chart, you will see both unique and non-unique players that showed up in our data. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences and a positive number for non-unique differences. This desired outcome would show that when NFL Running Backs show up in the top 10, they are most likely to show up again.
Hard and Soft Ranges: Optimal RB Weights
This differences chart helped reveal two prominent weight ranges where RBs excelled. The soft range is where a smaller performance increase occurs but is still recognizable, and the hard range is where the highest performance increase occurs. Those ranges are indicated below, as taken from the differences chart:
Soft Range: 194-205 Pounds
Hard Range: 211-222 Pounds
Most Common RB Weight, Or Most Common Top Performing RB Weight?
Diving into the data further, we compared this hard weight range against the overall average of running backs in both the bottom 10 and top 10. In the bottom 10, there were 207 running backs measured. 63 of these running backs fell within this hard range, account for 30.4%. This establishes a baseline to see if we found an average NFL running back weight, or if we found an average top performing NFL running back weight. A great revelation was made when examining the top 10 finishers from 2003 to 2023: 80 out of 210 finishers resided within this weight bracket, representing 38.1%. This accounts for a 7.7% increase over the bottom 10 baseline!
Decade Trends: Hard Range Over Time
We also analyzed trends over two decades to understand the evolving significance of these weight ranges. Between 2004-2013 and 2014-2023, and including the soft range, the breakdown is as follows:
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 100 | 300 | 100 |
| In Soft Range | 30 | 38 | 11 |
| % (soft zone/all) | 30.0% | 12.7% | 11.0% |
| In Hard Range | 37 | 117 | 29 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 37.0% | 39.0% | 29.0% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 100 | 300 | 100 |
| In Soft Range | 17 | 50 | 26 |
| % (soft zone/all) | 17.0% | 16.7% | 26.0% |
| In Hard Range | 37 | 95 | 31 |
| % (hard zone/all) | 37.0% | 31.7% | 31.0% |
These trends indicate a consistent drop in the bottom 10 RBs across both decades. Importantly, the most recent decade (2014-2023) reflects a significant presence of the hard weight range in the top 10 performers.
Star Rookie RB’s to Watch
Our analysis didn’t stop there as we wanted to look forward to the upcoming rookie class. We segmented out each rookie into the range they fell in including ones who fell out of both ranges.
Soft Range Rookies (194-205 lbs)
The Soft Range is a lighter weight with less top producing historical backs, but still significant enough to not ignore. Here are the players in this category:
- Blake Corum (205 lbs)
- Emani Bailey (202 lbs)
- Cody Schrader (202 lbs)
- Frank Gore Jr. (201 lbs)
Hard Range Rookies (211-222 lbs)
Running backs in the Hard Range are in the heaviest range and have the highest historical top level producers. Here’s a list of rookies in this weight range:
- Jonathan Brooks (216 lbs)
- Trey Benson (216 lbs)
- MarShawn Lloyd (220 lbs)
- Ray Davis (211 lbs)
- Isaac Guerendo (221 lbs)
- Audric Estime (221 lbs)
- Isaiah Davis (218 lbs)
- Jase McClellan (221 lbs)
- Kimoni Vidal (213 lbs)
- Dillon Johnson (217 lbs)
Outside Both Ranges
By no means are we saying players outside both ranges will never produce positively, although we do recommend taking this into account when evaluating talents. Especially if they are on the low or high side of both ranges. Here are the players who do not fit into the Soft or Hard Range:
- Jaylen Wright (210 lbs)
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. (209 lbs)
- Will Shipley (206 lbs)
- Braelon Allen (235 lbs)
- Dylan Laube (206 lbs)
- Rasheen Ali (206 lbs)
- George Holani (208 lbs)
- Keilan Robinson (191 lbs)
- Kendall Milton (225 lbs)
- Bucky Irving (192 lbs)
- Jaden Shirden (187 lbs)
- Daijun Edwards (207 lbs)
- Miyan Williams (229 lbs)
- Stone Vaki (210 lbs)
- Michael Wiley (210 lbs)
- Jawhar Jordan (193 lbs)
Regression Testing
We further ran regression tests to see if there is any correlation overall with RB weight to predict fantasy points. Unfortunately, this did not prevail the results we were hoping to see. Typically, you should hope for a P-Value of 0.05 or less. This would indicate all the numbers in the data set has a correlation. For running backs who finished 1-50th in fantasy standings since 2003, the P-Value came back as 0.183. Further, the chart for linear regression can be seen below:
When we create our StarPredictor score to attempt to predict fantasy production for prospects, we are going to take this into account for how much we weigh the prediction score for the hard weight range.
Conclusion
Our in-depth analysis suggests that weighing between 211-222 pounds provides a slight performance boost historically to running backs. Whether in the Soft Range, Hard Range, or outside both ranges, by no means are we saying this list of players corresponding to the ranges is the only thing anyone should take into account. Rather, this should be used as a tool to supplement your research of players.
To go over it again: our study found two distinct weight ranges corresponding to running back success: a “soft” range spanning from 194 to 205 pounds and a “hard” range from 211 to 222 pounds, with the hard range showcasing a higher peak in performance.
More Data Next Week!
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics, and this latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday We will dive deep into the most intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis similar to this. We thrive on curiosity and welcome your input — so please, leave comments or reach out to us with topics you’re eager to see dissected next. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 9 of The Saturday Script is our next examination of Running Backs: Does Height matter? If so, what’s the ideal height for a RB? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a short question and we will go to work for you!
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