The Projected 100.0 SPS QB In The 2026 NFL Draft
11/12/2025
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To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the
For the next installment in our 84-part “Does It Matter?” series, we’re diving deep into the numbers to determine if a Tight End’s NFL Combine Broad Jump can help predict future fantasy football success. We’ll explore whether a correlation exists, how much weight you should give this metric, and what benchmark, if any, is ideal for identifying top talent. Here are all of our findings.
To build the basis of our study, we examined the top 50 PPR fantasy football finishers at the Tight End position every season since 2003. Throughout this article, you’ll see references to the “top 10” and the “bottom 10.” The “bottom 10” refers specifically to the players who finished between 41st and 50th in fantasy scoring each season.
Why the top 50? We chose this range to find a happy medium. Going further would yield fringe roster players who are highly unlikely to ever crack the top 10, which would only skew the data. On the other hand, to truly understand what separates the best from the rest, we needed a comparison group that was statistically distinct from the elite tier. The 41st-50th place finishers provide that clear contrast, allowing us to effectively compare the athletic profiles of top performers against those of lower-tier players.
To begin, we created a chart averaging the broad jump distances for different tiers of finishers: the top 10, 11th-30th, and 31st-50th. We expected to see a clear trend where higher jumps correlated with higher fantasy scores, but the data showed no such pattern. In fact, the results were often inverted. In 12 of the 21 seasons we analyzed (57.1%), the top 10 fantasy finishers actually had a lower average broad jump than the 31st-50th place finishers. This surprising result made it clear that simply looking at averages wouldn’t give us the answer.
Our next step was to chart every top 10 finisher since 2003, segmenting them into 1-inch buckets based on their broad jump. This approach began to reveal a slight trend. By comparing the weight and distribution of players across these buckets, it appeared that higher broad jumps may correlate with high-end fantasy scores more often than not. However, it wasn’t the clear, actionable insight we were hoping for.
Our main goal was to find an applicable threshold which has historically signaled top-level consistency while minimizing the appearance of unique, outlier players. To do this, we created a “differences chart.” This chart compares the quantity of top 10 finishers to bottom 10 finishers within specific broad jump ranges. For each broad jump measurement, we created a 5-inch bucket (e.g., 120″ to 125″) and subtracted the quantity of bottom 10 players in that range from the quantity of top 10 players. The chart’s desired outcome is a negative number for unique differences (Orange) and a positive number for non-unique differences (Blue). From this analysis, a possible optimal range finally emerged. It became apparent that 123″ and above was a possible top-performing range, getting us closer to our answer, which we will next dive deeper into to verify.
With a potential threshold in sight, we number-crunched further, making quick range adjustments in our spreadsheet to ensure we identified the highest-producing range. After testing various numbers close to the range our differences chart showed, we confirmed our findings. Keeping this range at 123 inches and above produces a 16.3% higher top 10 appearance rate than in the bottom 10. This range should be what you look for in athletes and will also be included in our Ultimate Athlete Blueprints, which offers an easy-to-read table housing all of our researched metrics combined in one place for you to view seen here:
Due to these findings, Broad Jumps could play a factor in our Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. The Star-Predictor Score (SPS) is a scouting tool designed to maximize investment potential and reduce risks when drafting rookies in Fantasy Football. It is proven to have a higher accuracy than draft capital alone to predict fantasy football success. The SPS includes 13 to 17 metrics, with the exact number varying by the player’s position. All these metrics are pre-NFL, and some are invented by us, providing a complete analysis of a player’s analytical profile. The SPS gained widespread notoriety for its high accuracy, having made it on Barstool and The Pat McAfee Show. The SPS can be found here, and future projected SPS grades can be unlocked here.
To validate our findings through another lens, we applied standard statistical methods.
Pearson Value: 0.160
This value shows a positive and strong correlation between broad jump distances and future fantasy production. When studying world-class athletes as we are, a Pearson value greater than 0.1 (or less than -0.1) is considered significant. For context, the accompanying Pearson value for QB draft capital – a metric everyone acknowledges matters in prospect scouting – prevailed a -0.219 Pearson value.
Finally, we compared decades to spot any recent trends in how significant our TE broad jump optimal range is for the top 10, 11-40th place finishers, and bottom 10. The decadal differences chart below shows that this optimal range is an increasing trend in the most recent decade, meaning the 123″ benchmark is becoming an even stronger indicator of elite performance in today’s NFL.
| 2004-2013 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 42 | 170 | 54 |
| All 123” and above | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 9.5% | 11.8% | 1.9% |
| 2014-2023 | |||
| Top 10 | 11 through 40 | Bottom 10 | |
| All count | 50 | 153 | 47 |
| All 123” and above | 21 | 46 | 9 |
| % (Optimal Range/all) | 42.0% | 30.1% | 19.1% |
So, does the Tight End Broad Jump matter? The answer is yes, but with crucial context. Looking at the metric in isolation or relying on averages is misleading. However, our analysis shows that hitting the 123-inch benchmark in the broad jump is a marker for helping to predict elite fantasy potential. While it shouldn’t be the only metric you use, it’s a powerful tiebreaker and a key piece of the puzzle when evaluating a player’s ceiling.
Our series has always sought to push the boundaries of sports analytics. This latest installment reaffirms our commitment to uncovering the hidden dynamics that define the game. Every Saturday, we’ll dive into intriguing questions, bust myths, and settle debates with thorough analysis. We welcome your input. Therefore, please leave comments or reach out with topics you’re eager to see dissected. All of our research can be found on our Analytics Page. Up next on our agenda for Part 85 of “Does It Matter?” is an examination of Tight End Arm Lengths: Do They Matter? If so, what’s the draft age threshold necessary for NFL success? Mark your calendars; every Saturday we shed light on the topics that matter to you. All it takes is a quick question being asked and we will go to work for you!
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To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the
Welcome to our now 86-part “Does It Matter?” series dedicated to finding out which metrics matter for fantasy football production. In this
To view this content including projected future SPS grades, you must be a Premium BrainyBallers member. You can see details of the